New Modi Govt and Pakistan Problem


This article was originally published under the caption ‘With War and Without War: How to deal with Pakistan’ on February 23, 2019.

Republished on March 23, 2019 under the caption “How to solve India’s “Pakistan” problem permanently?

Today on 31st May 2019 the new Modi government has taken over. The “Pakistan” problem is still there as it has been there since 1947: there is news that while Pak PM is talking of his desire for peace with India, its army is getting its terrorists launch pads ready to cross over to India. The Modi government must stick to its strategy of “no peace and offensive mode” to force Pak to strain its economy. We are republishing this article once again and adding a video, which was suppressed by the mainstream media:

  1. India as a nation has to accept the reality – the reality about terrorism and its root – before it can hope to deal with it successfully and safeguard its existence against the danger it poses. This reality is that terrorism emanating from Pakistan is not connected with or limited only to Kashmir. This terrorism has a world-wide agenda in general and against India in particular. It would be deceiving oneself if India believes or pretends to believe that terrorists’ agenda is limited to Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. The sure path to destruction is to reject the reality; history is full of precedents testifying to this fact.
  2. The latest is Pulwama; before that  it was Pathankot and before that it was Urri. And before that there were Kargil, 1971, 1965 and 1948. This is about the past; and it is dead certain that in the future also Pulwama is not going to be the last one. One would wonder, after all, how long Pakistan will continue to do it? The answer is: forever. We do not want to go into the reason of all these past events and future estimation because the reason is well-known and much discussed in the public domain. Suffice it to say here that Pakistan as a nation has been gripped by an idea – draped as a religion but in fact an idea only – that it is the “Command of Almighty God” to either convert all those to their faith who do not bear this faith or, failing to convert them, to kill them. It is firmly believed by these Pakistani irrationals that, as per God’s words, these non-believers are ‘Kafirs’ and this world – this whole earth – has to be made free of all ‘Kafirs’ in obayance to God’s (Allah) commandment. It is a dangerous idea, which in 21st century can onset an atomic war. Unfortunately, humans are still motivated by ideas. We have very recently witnessed people moved by dangerous ideas under Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, Mao tse Tung etc. The idea of ‘Kafir’ and ‘Command of God to convert or kill Kafirs’ is more dangerous than the mentioned ones. It is more dangerous because ‘this idea’ finds place in the minds of millions of those people who are irrational, have firm belief that if they die in an effort to kill “Kafirs”, they will be handsomely rewarded in heaven with beautiful women and possess atomic weapons. It is logical for us to realize that such people may decide to “kill themselves” with these atomic weapons, so that “Kafirs” are also killed along with them. The only thing required for such eventuality is their sense (of irrational mind) that NOW IS THE TIME to do it. Nothing more is needed; and the world will be blown out in a chain reaction of uncontrolled atomic explosions; and nobody is safe – absolutely none!
  3. Why do we call “Pakistan” a problem of India? It should be quite obvious to any observer who is neutral. India has many neighbours but it had no wars with any of them, except a solitary conflict with China in 1962. There has been no wars with Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Bangladesh and China (with the said exception). But there have been almost continuous – constant – war with Pakistan. Why? The reason is that Pakistan is home to the above said dangerous idea. Therefore, it is a “Pakistan” problem of India. We are going to devote this article for the solution – solution to end this problem forever in the objective world.
  4. Today, the latest Pulwama incident has evoked strong national sentiments in India for revenge, retaliation, national unity, grief, anger, and the determination to crush this rouge country called Pakistan. Such sentiments are natural, justified, necessary, and create a much-needed national determination to teach a lesson to Pakistan. But sentiments are not enough to turn them into reality.
  5. In addition to sentiments, wisdom too is needed. One can very well guess – to an almost certainty – that Pakistan after doing Pulwama – and even at the time of the planning of Pulwama – must have calculated that there would a serious reaction and retaliation from India and it must have got itself prepared to deal with such reaction. In military science, surprise is as weighty an element – if not the most weighty – as the elements of courage, determination, weapons, strategy etc. Indian public suffering under the grief and anger would want the country to quickly punish Pakistan but the wisdom tells us such a retaliatory exercise at this moment is a foolhardy act. Notwithstanding the public sentiment to act quickly, this problem coming from Pakistan is an old one and needs a long-term action plan put into effect immediately. What is this long-term plan that needs to be put into effect quickly? We will deal with it here.
  6. Let us understand and accept the reality. There is war like situation with Pakistan – and war may be started anytime by India – and we can win the war against this state; it is not wishful thinking; India has fought and won several wars against Pakistan. It can be won once again. Let us leave apart for the time being the atomic confrontation between these two countries and neutralization of Pakistan’s missiles laden with atom bombs by preemptively launching Indian Brahmos and using Russian made S-400 anti-missile batteries; we can retaliate and the war  may start, we can deal effectively with it, and we can win that war. Is it a solution? No, it is no solution. We have fought and won many wars in the past with Pakistan and still Pulwama is there. It is no solution.
  7. Addition on March 23, 2019: India has DONE IT in Balakot. India can do it AGAIN and WILL do it again, at its own chosing of time, manner and intensity.  Pakistan must be forced to keep its army / air force / nevy 24 hours in ready mode. If Pakistan relexes its vigil against India, India must use this opportunity to strike on terror camps / terror master minds within Pakistan. This strategy will force Pakistan to remain in a constant ready mode, draining and devouring its economy. Let us move on.
  8. The world we live in, is as it is: devoted to one’s selfish interests. If you start a war, many are against you and many are in favor of you and in any case you have to fight your war yourself. If you win the war the whole world is with you. This world is like this. You need the courage to start the war and your own resources to win, before the world is with you. Still, you win the war against Pakistan and it is no solution.
  9. There are many Pakistans within Pakistan. Today, to the most of the world Pakistan is a terrorist supporting state, and to many countries it is a terrorist state itself. It is an image that official Pakistan has assiduously created for itself. But inside Pakistan, there are many segments. Army, ISI, criminal religious fundamentalists, Madarsas, a large number of terrorist outfits and Jihadi religious ideologues are on the one side of this fragmented Pakistan. Another segment of Pakistan is of those people who are sane people and who do not take to their heart seriously the Islamic religious Jihadist bigotry. Nobody knows how many they are in number – because they fear the dominant rulers. This segment of Pakistani people harbors no hate or enmity against India. But India cannot count on them. Still, their interests should be kept in mind while planning to solve the Pakistan problem. They are an asset to India’s planning and have a dominant role to play in a Pakistan of the post Indian action; they would be much-needed element for a new realignment of forces in this South West area of Asia.
  10. First of all, India must declare its official stand against Pakistan in  un-equivocal terms and make it an international issue: “India rejects that there is any command of God or Allah to kill all those who do not put their faith in His alleged words or commands. India also calls upon the humanity to reject such claim”. It should be India’s official position and India should make efforts to create an international consensus for this stand.
  11. India should adopt the “Constriction Principle” as the permanent part of its national strategy to deal with Pakistan to safeguard and guarantee its existence. What is this constriction principle? It is a technique that a python utilizes to squeeze, suffocate and devour its prey. As a python uses its big size and more strength to chock its prey slowly out of life, so does India would need to utilize its big size, more strength and its geographical proximity to Pakistan to slowly chock this eternal enemy state out of its viability, without waging an open war against it. It would require on the part of India to apply on constant basis a number of measures against Pakistan – as the core principle of its national defense policy. Pakistan would wish it was better for it if it were  located far away from India. The conventional war does not include in these measures – the conventional war is not among them.
  12. These measures are: No. 1: Withdraw unilaterally from Indus Water Treaty, 1960 to renegotiate for new and equitable terms or to abrogate it altogether. It would include all the six rivers – Eastern and Western river systems. Calculate the losses arising out of the breakdown of Brahmputra River treaty with China. There, with China it is a matter of loss of water but with Pakistan it is a matter of national survival of India. No. 2: Respect the aspirations of Baluchistan people for freedom and their urging for help for their right – they were occupied illegally by force. Allow a Baluchistan government in exile in India and recognize it; urge other friendly countries to recognize their government. Calculate the loss arising out of Iranian sentiments against any independent nation of Baluchistan. No. 3: Impose prohibitive custom duty permissible under World Trade Organization obligations for export to Pakistan and import into India of all goods. No. 4: With the 1.5 billion people willing to buy – and able to buy – India is the biggest consumer market in the world today and this  strength must be utilized by India as a lever to “bend” unwilling countries like China to pay heed to its concerns against Pakistan and behave accordingly. Failing which such countries must be made to suffer the economic consequences – to the maximum limit permissible under the World Trade Organization obligations.  It is reasonable that India should be willing to accept its comparatively slower economic progress but not the danger to its very existence as a nation. No. 5: Pass a parliamentary Act declaring Pakistan a Terrorist State, prohibiting any social and cultural exchange with it by Indians. Persuade other friendly countries also to so designate this country and do the same. No. 6: Respect the sentiments of the people of Sind against the injustice of Punjabis of Pakistan. No. 7: Identify, monitor and neutralize all those Indians who support and help Pakistan – overtly or covertly, like working in terrorist modules, supporting Pakistan cause publicly, writing in support of that cause. No. 8: Scrap Articles 35-A and 370 from the Indian constitution. It should be done as early as possible. Encourage ex-army men with licensed rifles to settle in Kashmir. No. 9: Develop indigenous technology – including defense technology – to help achieve these objectives. Rely more and more on technology – information and space technologies – than depending on human resources.
  13. Addition: Strategies which India should pursue – and which India is pursuing – to deal with the rougue state called  Pakistan: India has suddenly chosen not to take Pak attacks lying low, which Pakistan was habituated to  believe – that India will do nothing beyond condemning Pakistan for such attacks. It’s a strategy to keep Pak forces always on standby, which will bleed them financially.
  14. Standby mode of all forces costs the most to a country. Pakistan has only 6 Billion Dollar foreign currency to trade and buy various things from international markets.
  15. It will take maximum 4-6 months for the Pak economy to fall, if India continued this non military war. On the backdrop, pushing terrorists will no more be regular stuff till the war is going on.
  16. Kashmir has close to 200 active terrorists . Govt has been aggressively killing them speedily. The refilling of terrorists from border has stopped.
  17. Fund used by Jamat e Islami to mobilize the terrorists is seized completely under the UN Act for prevention of terrorism.
  18. Inflation in Pakistan has reached from 2% to 10% in just a few days of war. Continuation of the current scenario will lead Pak reach inflation of above 20% in a month.
  19. No economy puts money on war zones. The Saudi announcement of investment will naturally hault if India continues this situation for 4-6 months.
  20. China has an import market of close to 61.5 billion USD in India. As India’s growth as a country is ahead of China, they will have to get in sync on India’s approach.
  21. Baluchistan insurgency adds value to the current situation. It is bleeding Pak internally. But on international front India enjoys support of over 250 countries. International relation of Modi govt has given dividend at the right time.
  22. If the government returns, which is very much likely, India can demolish Pak without much casualty or much use of weapons in just 6 months. If India remains steadfast in sticking to this defence policy, there is not an iota of doubt that this country will not remain politically viable for long.
  23. Remember a Military War will bleed Indian economy and is good for other countries as India will have to buy military products extensively. So till Pak becomes weak enough, a non military war is advisable for us.
  24. Current situation is also pro India, as kashmir insurgency is taking it’s last breath and none of the development work of India is on hold unlike that of Pakistan’s.
  25. If Modi returns as PM, India will be in better position to take back PoK in the coming six months.
  26. By then, expect more Rajya Sabha seats and also the end of 35 A and 370. The demographic profile which changed in 1990, due to the killings of Kashmiri Pandits can be reversed, as any citizen of the country will be able to buy land and invest in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh region.
  27. Taking PoK will also enable Indian political seats. Five seats in the Lower House as well as one in the Rajya Sabha for residents of Gilgit and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) regions will emerge for which the private member bill is already being introduced.
  28. Most importantly it will block all of China’s hardwork and money spent till now in PoK region, to gain permanent control on the region . Taking Baluchistan from Pak will hurt China’s investment the most.
  29. The current scenario is very carefully crafted by the government, and return of a strong Modi as a prime minister will be boon for the country’s sustainability and growth.
  30. Added video:

 

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